POTUS Saving Lives

[SteveHazard]

Agreed 56k could be a bit high. 38k last year, 61k 2018....

but yes I do think it’s a fair comparison. Even if the death rate is 2x or 3x the amount of a “regular flu”, the question is it worth tanking our entire economy and way of life?? I know my answer.

as to the concept that it would have been much worse had we done nothing, we will never really know, will we?? How do you prove that?

First I have a hard time believing the millions of people dying from an illness wouldn't also have adverse effects on the economy.
Secondly if you apply math you can pretty much rule out it having a mortality of only 2x or 3x the normal flu.
For example 2x the flu would be .26% so multiple the number of deaths by 385 and you would have to have over 13 million cases for that to be true. Oh and that 13 mil number would of been how many had some point in the past because it takes time for it to incubate and kill people. So there would be many more now. I'm not seeing 20 mil+ with this right now. You would have to have an extremely high number of asymptomatic cases for that to be true which isn't happening.

 

[stikbrandon]

we Have been at war for 20 years with our country putting our finest of what this land produces on the front lines for the betterment of our country.

to risk our country’s stability for the possibility of 2% which I don’t believe for 3 seconds is mind boggling.

I still do not know a single sole with covid-19.

 

[longbowhunter2]

I have telecons all a round the country, suppliers, and customers,
only one person has caught it , and that was in San Diego,
and I talk with people daily.

 

[HATCHET1]

I have an aquaintence that had the Rona...no doom and gloom...no ventilator..felt like they had a cold, guess they are 1 of the 95% or 98%?that live to tell about it..no doubt folks are cacking...just not the 1 that i know of..

 

[Snake Charmer]

First I have a hard time believing the millions of people dying from an illness wouldn't also have adverse effects on the economy.
Secondly if you apply math you can pretty much rule out it having a mortality of only 2x or 3x the normal flu.
For example 2x the flu would be .26% so multiple the number of deaths by 385 and you would have to have over 13 million cases for that to be true. Oh and that 13 mil number would of been how many had some point in the past because it takes time for it to incubate and kill people. So there would be many more now. I'm not seeing 20 mil+ with this right now. You would have to have an extremely high number of asymptomatic cases for that to be true which isn't happening.

we Have been at war for 20 years with our country putting our finest of what this land produces on the front lines for the betterment of our country.

to risk our country’s stability for the possibility of 2% which I don’t believe for 3 seconds is mind boggling.

I still do not know a single sole with covid-19.

Both of you are fact picking and not looking at all the info that is being presented. as we know it at the moement and its Don's crew that is giving us the low down and trying to get us back on track, Listen to what he is saying and what his experts are asking us to do. Beyond this I don't care to pursue this conversation with you, all I ask is that you do your homework. Stats not opinions is how this works and stop comparing this to the normal flu season it is different as it is what is called a novel virus and that is different. Look at the heavily affected regions of this country and you will see people are dieing in far greater numbers than a normal flu season.

 

[Muledeerhunter]

Both of you are fact picking and not looking at all the info that is being presented. as we know it at the moement and its Don's crew that is giving us the low down and trying to get us back on track, Listen to what he is saying and what his experts are asking us to do. Beyond this I don't care to pursue this conversation with you, all I ask is that you do your homework. Stats not opinions is how this works and stop comparing this to the normal flu season it is different as it is what is called a novel virus and that is different. Look at the heavily affected regions of this country and you will see people are dieing in far greater numbers than a normal flu season.

Says look at stats and provides no stats. Also, what is the basis for your expertise?

Bottom line, the mortality rate is 1% or less when taking in the overall infection rate. Millions in the US have probably already been infected without even noticing it. The well-being of the country outweighs the lives of 1%.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[longbeard55]

stik If your mother was part of the 2% would you sacrifice her for the economy?

 

[Kellendv]

No I don’t. The people who are dying from Covid are almost exclusively those with other underlying health issues, and mostly old people. (much like those who die from the regular flu). When it’s your time it’s your time. God makes that decision


staying home is not going to prevent everyone from getting Covid, it’s being done to flatten the curve so we don’t all get it at once and overwhelm the hospitals. Staying home isn’t going to make the virus disappear. If it’s as contagious as they say, we will all get it eventually. The death rate will be the same, just not all at once. Lots and lots of people have gotten Covid and had no symptoms and many have lived through it.

1.25 MILLION deaths a year worldwide from car accidents and another 20-50 million injured or disabled. Will Covid kill that many worldwide ??
(144k so far)

I certainly hear and respect your points on this and I am not beating my chest to try and say I am right. .... this is a bad bad disease and I certainly have sympathy for all that have been inflicted and died.

just saying that the numbers are not coming close to the original dire predictions and this unprecedented extreme reaction seems like it may cause disproportionate damage to the economy and our way of life.

33k deaths so far and 22 million unemployed as a result of the cure.

I respect your opinion and I don’t discount the damage to the economy and the impact on American lives. This whole situation sucks.

I guess I just don’t understand how people see our society ignoring the virus and going about our business and letting everyone get infected. The mortality rate is more than 10 times greater than the flu. We will not know what the mortality rate truly is for a few years, but it’s in the low single digits and the flu is 0.1%. Even if the mortality rate is only 1%, if we let it run rampant we would have millions dead. Hospitals would be paralyzed and unable to deal with all the regular ailments that we deal with on a daily basis. Try and imagine what that would do to America. No one would go outside, let alone to work. The economy would be in much worse shape than it is now.

 

[stikbrandon]

stik If your mother was part of the 2% would you sacrifice her for the economy?

She wouldn’t even give me the time to make that decision.

Pretty sure she would lay down her life so the other 26 million UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS could have there lives back to some what normal.

This is not about the individual, this is about the country in a whole. That’s one of the reasons OUR president was elected... he put the country first.

 

[stikbrandon]

Disclosure .....

I am not bashing anyone for agreeing with the shut down. I was just stating my opinion.

@Snake Charmer I have spoke about this issue a few times on R2R. I still have to work and that puts me at risk more then most. I don’t work from home, I’m in the public every day and when I’m off I am doing my part, I’m staying inside, covering my face with a neck gator. when I go to the store, get gas or run for essentials I’m wiping everything down. With all that if I can go through life and deal with these requirements so can everyone else.


I also do not have kids, so I do not have that protection feeling day to day. I am married with a wife that feels the same way as I do, she’s rad. I do not want to be the reason someone not as comfortable with this situation to catch Covid-19 so I do my part.

 

[SteveHazard]

Both of you are fact picking and not looking at all the info that is being presented. as we know it at the moement and its Don's crew that is giving us the low down and trying to get us back on track, Listen to what he is saying and what his experts are asking us to do. Beyond this I don't care to pursue this conversation with you, all I ask is that you do your homework. Stats not opinions is how this works and stop comparing this to the normal flu season it is different as it is what is called a novel virus and that is different. Look at the heavily affected regions of this country and you will see people are dieing in far greater numbers than a normal flu season.

You should read what I wrote more carefully.
I was disproving the idiotic assertion that the mortality is comparable or closer to the flu with math. Using stats. This seems to be something we are in agreement on so not sure why you directed your response to me.

 

[CazadorSuerte]

The idiot never said the mortality rate was the same as the flu. Your “math” didn’t make sense to me, but I wasn’t going to comment.

my reference to the flu was only to put the total NUMBER of yearly deaths in perspective compared to other causes of death in America. I could have chose Heart Disease 600k, or suicide 47k..... point being, so far the number of deaths from this Covid virus are not adding up the the millions that were predicted.

hopefully that never happens.

I too am sheltered in my home and me and my family are doing what we are being told to do, but in my humble and perhaps idiotic opinion, we have over-reacted.

 

[A Team]

The Year 2020 will go down in the history books as the "Great Pandemic" that never was.

Polititions will take credit for avoiding a 1918 Spanish Flu senario and numbers will be twisted to but will those number ever validate shutting down thje nation , I don't believe so.

COVID 19 will take lives but not from its symptoms that greatest casulties will be from financial ruin.

 

[SteveHazard]

The idiot never said the mortality rate was the same as the flu. Your “math” didn’t make sense to me, but I wasn’t going to comment.

my reference to the flu was only to put the total NUMBER of deaths in perspective compared to other causes of death in America. I could have chose Heart Disease 600k, or suicide 47k..... point being, so far the number of deaths from this Covid virus are not adding up the the millions that were predicted.

hopefully that never happens.

I too am sheltered in my home and doing what we are being told to do, but in my humble and perhaps idiotic opinion, we have over-reacted.

You said even if it is 2-3x the mortality of the flu.

If we KNOW the average mortality rate of a disease and how many died we can then estimate the number of infected from those numbers. You would simply multiple the number of dead by the denominator of the mortality rate. For example if the flu has a mortality of .1% (1/1000) and if 50 people die of it then 50 x 1000 = 50,000 and that is the estimate for the number of people that were infected.

I am simply inserting the mortality rate you suggested into that equation to estimate the number that would have to of been infected for that to be true. Then looking at that number to make a determination of how plausible that mortality rate is.

So flu mortality is about .1 then 2-3 times that is .25 (1/400)
Current number of dead I'm seeing is 35,388
35,388 x 400 = 14,155,200

So for a .25% mortality rate to be true then 14+ million Americans would of had to of had the virus already. Also since the situation is ongoing that estimate is an estimate of the past. The people that died today didn't get infected today they were infected awhile ago. The virus incubated in them, they suffered though the symptoms, and then died. I don't know what the actual average time from infection to death is but lets say it is 2 weeks. Then the 14 mil number would be the number of infected 2 weeks ago and the current number would be even greater.

I'm not seeing reports of 10 of millions of Americans infected with this so I'm filing a .25 mortality rate under not plausible.

I get wanting to start opening things up again. This whole situation completely sucks.
But don't convince yourself it's a great idea using clearly false perceptions of what the mortality rate is.
Also keep in mind there is one mortality rate for when heath care is available and a different much worse rate when there is not.

I hate this thing just as much as everybody else. My personal opinion is we didn't act soon enough and as a result we will have to endure more death, more economic strain, and more time in these stupid lock downs we all hate, while scumbags will use this as an excuse to try and push for more draconian practices after this is over.

 

[HATCHET1]

Wonder what the per gun average for a duckshooter will be at wister this coming october for the duck opener?

 

[rusty shackelford]

How does this Tony even type with his head so far up his a$$. Must say that takes talent.

 

[CazadorSuerte]

Agreed 56k could be a bit high. 38k last year, 61k 2018....

but yes I do think it’s a fair comparison. Even if the death rate is 2x or 3x the amount of a “regular flu”, the question is it worth tanking our entire economy and way of life??


I said death rate, intending to mean number of deaths...which is why we were talking about the number of deaths from the flu, not percentages and "mortality rates".........you interpreted that to be mortality rate, I was just talking about number of people per year that died...I understand that COVID has a higher mortality rate than the flu.....at this point, I am looking at the number of people that have died from this Covid thing, and in comparison to how many people die from other causes of death, it is remarkable to me that we have shut down the entire economy in reaction to it......

There very well could be millions of people who have the disease or have had the disease that we do not know about, because there is not enough testing available so any mathematical computation of mortality rate, in my opinion of course, is not valid at this point.

Again, I am not trying to engage in an argument with anyone or "win" and argument and I definitely see both sides of this, it just seems to me, that there may be an over-reaction here. I am all for saving lives, and if doing what we are doing is saving lives, then great.....we are also saving lives from traffic accidents too I suppose since everyone is theoretically staying home and off the roads.

And yes Hatch, there should be more ducks this year, as there is no question, at least in my idiotic mind, that California will use this to cancel as many hunting seasons as possible.

 

[Kellendv]

Wonder what the per gun average for a duckshooter will be at wister this coming october for the duck opener?

Lol it’ll probably be close to the flu mortality rate

 

[HATCHET1]

Im thinking there gonna be some angry duckers after they buy all there duck stuff from the State ...license, passess, stamps and whatever else Ca charges the ducker...only to be then told that they will not be able to shoot ducks on the refuges....or any state or fed land....i see Ca just came out with the licenses for this year....id prolly hold off on buying right now...but i dont really duck that much..

 

[CazadorSuerte]

Angry duckers makes for an increased comedy rate...... I would say around .69.....