I dont imagine I will be drawing anything via preference points in my lifetime with only 6 now across the board for Elk, Sheep, and Antelope. I stopped applying for the last 4 years while out of state and I am kicking myself. Somebody's gotta draw that 1 random quota tag per unit though.
I should have enough deer points to draw X-9B as a party with a friend who is stationed here for another year. I'm looking forward to that next year.
It’s important to have a draw strategy in any state, but I think particularly in California you really have to acknowledge the reality of the playing field and decide what you want to do. For deer; do you want to hunt more? Or do you want to hunt the very best unit? Your points are meaningless until you hit the threshold of the minimum points to draw any given unit. If you are one point behind max points, and you are applying for a max point unit, you are in the random draw with everyone else hoping for one of the few random tags that are offered. You are in the same boat with the guy with 0 points and everyone else in between.
Of course, there is always the chance to draw one of the few random tags. A former SCH’er drew a coveted Tule bull tag this year…. So it can happen. All Elk (bull), pronghorn and sheep tags in California should be considered a once in a lifetime tag and you should assume you won’t draw them for a very long time (decades) or maybe ever.
For deer I recommend choosing a timeframe you are willing to wait for a tag and finding a corresponding unit for that amount of points. Most of the “good” units are taking 8+ these days. You can hunt one of these units 2 or 3 times in the amount of time it would take to draw the “best” unit in the state. Or, apply for the best and then dedicate yourself to hunting a unit you can hunt every year on a second choice tag. There are “big” bucks in “OTC” units but they aren’t going to be easy to find and you are going to be sharing the unit with many others.
The annual random draw odds are pretty bad, but if you project them out several decades for several species, you have a real shot at drawing. Now expand that to several states and raffles, and the determined applicant is statistically likely to have a few glory tags in their pocket over the years.
Just my mindset when it comes to applying. This is assuming draw odds don't tank even further (and that you have a few decades left)
One thing I’ll add, stay aware of what’s going on in your dream unit. I burned a bunch of points on D17 last year remembering the way it once was before the state dried it up.
The annual random draw odds are pretty bad, but if you project them out several decades for several species, you have a real shot at drawing. Now expand that to several states and raffles, and the determined applicant is statistically likely to have a few glory tags in their pocket over the years.
Just my mindset when it comes to applying. This is assuming draw odds don't tank even further (and that you have a few decades left)
I agree with this wholeheartedly and imagine thats the majority of hope that other guys in their 20s must have. I have a lifetime of random draws to get lucky and am fortunate enough to be able to have OTC opportunities every year anyways.
California has an unlimited theoretical cap on preference points too correct? If now its 25 across the board, in 50 years it will be a max 75 possible points, right? In that regard someone that is not already within 6-7 points of max has a pretty low chance of ever actually catching up to max in their lifetime.
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