Every single applicant who listed D14 as their first choice got awarded a tag. There were 1860 such applicants.
According to GoHunt, among these applicants, 195 of them ranged from having 8 points to .5 points. They were drawn first out of the 2700 tags set aside for applicants with the most preference points.
2505 tags for those with the most preference points now remain. The next "highest" amount of preference points was those having 0 points and who listed D14 as their first choice. According to GoHunt, there were 1665 such applicants.
That leaves us with 840 tags left for those with the "most" amount of prefernce points and listed D14 as their first choice. Problem is, no such applicants exist. Additionally, that means there's no such 1st choice applicants to award any of the 300 tags set aside for the random draw. Remember, there's 3000 tags for this zone total, not 2700, the remaining 300 are those set aside for the random draw.
That being the case, they move on to those who listed D14 as their second choice. The original 300 tags that were set aside for the random 1st choice draw are added back to the general pool. So there are now 1140 tags left to be awarded to anyone who listed D14 as their second choice. These 1140 are chosen randomly. California doesn't list how many second choice applicants there were, only how many were awarded, so it's not possible to calculate these odds unfortunately. Since every remaining tag was awarded to a second choice applicant, one can infer that demand must have execeeded supply.
So if you REALLY want a D14 bad enough to list it as your first choice, you will get it. If you KINDA want a D14, but only enough to list it as your second choice, there's no guarantee but it seems like there's a decent chance you might get it. If you MAYBE want a D14, but only enough to list it as your third choice, sorry but you won't get it.